The number of Americans diagnosed with diabetes will soar 165% over the next 50 years, but getting more people to change their diet and exercise habits could help put the brakes on the boom.

According to Dr. James P. Boyle from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and colleagues, 29 million Americans will be diagnosed with diabetes in 2050, compared with about 11 million today.

Adults aged 75 and over, who account for a growing segment of the population, will comprise the bulk of new cases. Among ethnic groups, black men will see rates of diabetes climb 363% and black women will see a 217% increase in rates of the disease.

Both white men and women will also see rates of diabetes more than double during this period, according to the report.

The study of the growing rates of the chronic disease points a finger at population growth, poor health habits and changing demographic trends.

The researchers note that the report may underestimate future rates of diabetes. For one, many cases go undiagnosed. It is estimated that as many as one third of those with diabetes are not diagnosed.

Additionally, the study did not include projections for Hispanics, a group with increasing rates of the disease.

Diabetes Care November 2001;24:1936-1940