Blair Would Find it Impossible
to Win Referendum
by Anthony King
professor of government at Essex University

Whatever verdict Gordon Brown delivers on the euro in June, YouGov's latest survey for The Daily Telegraph makes it clear that most Britons' view of the European Union remains tepid and that for the foreseeable future the Government would find it virtually impossible to win a referendum on the single currency.

A striking finding is that opinion on a range of European issues has scarcely changed since Labour came to power six years ago. The Blair Government is far more pro- European than its Tory predecessor but has demonstrably failed to bring public opinion around to its point of view.

Roughly a third of people regard EU membership as "a good thing". Nearly as many regard it as "a bad thing". There has been no long-term trend in attitudes towards the EU since Briton joined the Common Market in 1973. Fluctuations occur randomly in response to specific events.

Looking to the future, the proportions seeking "a fully integrated Europe" or "complete withdrawal from the EU" have remained quite stable over the past few years. Only small minorities want either. That said, the proportion in favour of "a less integrated Europe with the EU amounting to little more than a free trade area" has, as the figures show, increased substantially from 21 per cent in 2000 to 30 per cent now. In other words the only discernable shift of opinion has been in the direction opposite to that preferred by ministers.

There is little enthusiasm for a European constitution. YouGov reminded respondents that a constitution is being drafted that would set out the powers of the EU and national governments and be binding on all EU member states, including Britain.

YouGov then asked whether people would be in favour or opposed to the adoption of such a constitution. Only a tiny minority, 15 per cent, said they would be in favour. More than double that proportion, 39 per cent, said they would be against. A further 39 per cent said "it would depend on the terms".

YouGov elicited the opinions of 2,390 adults across Britain on-line between April 22 and 24.
The Daily Telegraph, 28th April 2003