Disaster Looms if Constitution
is Repudiated Warns Giscard

Valery Giscard d'Estang implored Europe's leaders this week to stick with the draft text of the European constitution thrashed out by elected parliamentarians over 16 months of arduous compromise or face disaster.

He gave warning that public opinion would not forgive the ruling elite if the document was re-written, reverting to the old habit of horse-trading behind closed doors.

"If the text is mutilated, it would set off a crisis that Europe certainly does not need in these circumstances," he said. "Let's contemplate how serious failure would be, when real trial by fire will take place, which is ratification. This is not something we can take for granted. Ratification is not a foregone conclusion."

Denmark may already be a lost cause. The latest poll shows that only 18 per cent of Danes would vote in their referendum next year for the constitution as drafted.

The text creates a full-time European Union president, foreign minister and justice department with powers to launch cross-border investigations. It also doubles the legislative power of the European Parliament, establishes majority voting and gives EU law primacy over the law of member states.

Legally, any country can block the constitution. In reality, Denmark would be swept aside, as it was when Danes voted against the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. But Ireland, Portugal and Spain are also holding referendums and others will probably follow suit.

In France, the government is committed in principle to a plebiscite and, with so many countries likely to vote, upsets are almost inevitable.

At a meeting of foreign ministers at Lake Garda yesterday, the EU's core powers, led by France and Germany, closed ranks behind M Giscard's 263-page oeuvre fearing the whole house of cards would collapse if anything were altered.

Italy, which will run the talks until December, has promised to preserve the "fundamental elements" of the draft. On Tuesday, though, the British Government will lay out its "red lines", or sticking points, backed by an implicit threat of a veto of the final text unless changes are made.

These include the elimination of the "solidarity clause" which obliges countries to come to each other's defence and is seen as a French ruse to undermine NATO.

There is also alarm about a clause paving the way for a European attorney-general, and two draft articles that weaken Britain's veto on taxation policy. Under the current text, Brussels holds sway over justice, farming, fishing, transport, energy, social policy and the environment because of "shared competence". In reality, Westminster would not be able to legislate in these areas unless the EU chose not to "exercise its competence".

The Charter of Fundamental Rights will also acquire legal status. As a result, the European Court will gain jurisdiction over a number of social and economic rights.

To cap it all, the charter's Article 52 gives the EU the power to suspend all civil rights in the "general interests" of the union. No wonder the Government adamantly refuses a British referendum.

Further Resources
Ten Minutes to Midnight by Phillip Day
Vigilance by Ashley Mote
Available at www.credence.org